EXTREME IMPACTS
The physical and socioeconomic impacts of compound extreme events (such as simultaneous heat and drought, wildfires associated with hot and dry conditions, or flooding associated with high precipitation on top of snow or waterlogged ground) can be greater than the sum of the parts (very high confidence). Few analyses consider the spatial or temporal correlation between extreme events.
Agriculture
Climate change may also present a potential opportunity for agriculture with a longer growing season, though producers may be limited by water availability and limited adaptive capacity.
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Oregon’s $48.5B agriculture industry (2015) is a cornerstone of the state’s economy. By mid-century in the higher emissions scenario, parts of western Oregon will see a lengthening of the growing season by about two months,
and the rest of the state would see an increase of about a month.
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Adaptation
The challenges are great, but there are opportunities to adapt to a rapidly changing
Oregon. Adaptive capacity is not equal across and within communities and sectors. However, careful management of natural resources can help reduce the climate risks that the natural resources economy faces.
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Such management includes creating resilient agro-ecosystems, building more robust water markets, and managing forests while considering natural resources and wildfire prevention.
wildlife
The Northwest’s native wildlife is impacted by climate variability and change directly through temperature shifts, water availability, and extreme events, and indirectly through loss or fragmentation of habitat.
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Changes in climate can alter the balance among competing species or predator–prey relationships (e.g., Wenger et al. 201152). Three wildlife categories are of principal concern: already sensitive or endangered species, snow-dependent species, and game species.
Cropping Methods
A dryland farmer in Eastern Oregon is implementing flexible cropping methods, which allows the farmer to plant additional crops, instead of leaving the field uncultivated (fallow), when soil moisture conditions allow. By intensifying production and reducing fallow periods, profits have increased while also improving weed management, reducing erosion, and improving soil quality.
Conservation
A vegetable, grain, and livestock farmer in Washington is caring for the soil by using conservation tillage, direct seeding, and double cropping to reduce soil erosion, improve soil health, and increase revenues.
Holistic Management
A cattle ranching family in Washington is using holistic management, a comprehensive approach for ranch decision-making, to reduce environmental risks and improve pasture productivity and profitability.
Dry Farming
Farmers in Oregon’s Willamette Valley are using dry farming methods to reduce reliance on irrigation water. This Dry Farming Collaborative is developing and implementing approaches that reduce drought risks during dry summer growing seasons.
OCAR 4
FOURTH CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT
